According to a traditional on-chain indicator, Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially become a “sell” at a minimum of $110,000 as it undergoes its latest bull cycle.
Information from the on-chain analytics platform Look Into Bitcoin reveals that Bitcoin’s Terminal Price is indicating the possibility of a BTC price peak surpassing six figures.
Will the price of BTC reach six figures in the next cycle?
As the price of BTC reaches its highest levels in 18 months, analysts are already contemplating its potential trajectory over the coming months and years. Post the next block subsidy halving in April 2024, price targets, including $130,000, are being considered, with late 2025 emerging as a commonly discussed timeframe for the next cycle’s peak.
Philip Swift, the creator of Look Into Bitcoin, discussed the value of Terminal Price as a “simple” method for estimating long-term BTC price peaks. This metric is derived from Bitcoin’s Transferred Price, calculated by dividing Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) by the existing supply. CDD, a widely used metric, measures the number of dormant days reset each time a certain amount of BTC moves on-chain, providing valuable insights into hodler intent and activity.
Devised by Checkmate, the primary on-chain analyst at data company Glassnode, Terminal Price becomes relevant at the culmination of each BTC price cycle.
While not every all-time high aligns with Terminal Price, the BTC/USD did intersect with the trendline during its 2017 peak and the initial high in April 2021. The November 2021 all-time high of $69,000, however, did not quite reach this point.
In light of this, Swift recommended considering a selling strategy “near” Terminal Price, indicating it as a suitable approach. Its counterpart during bear markets, Balanced Price, similarly serves as a signal for valuable market bottoms.
As time progresses and Terminal Price rises, a target of $110,000 might ultimately prove conservative if the next all-time high occurs later in the upcoming cycle.
Anticipating a Pi Cycle crossover.
In additional analysis this week, Swift also underscored the reliability of the Pi Cycle Top indicator in offering long-term high estimates.
Pi employs two moving averages for its predictions, signaling the next high with their crossovers, albeit with just days’ notice.
“The Pi Cycle Top indicator caught many off-guard last cycle, myself included, by accurately pinpointing the top… once more! Will it successfully identify the bitcoin top again in this cycle?” Swift questioned.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading decisions involve risks, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any decisions.