Bloomberg analysts have increased the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) receiving approval by the conclusion of 2023, following a recent Grayscale victory over the federal securities regulator.
In an August 30th tweet, Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, revealed that the chances have been elevated from 65% to 75% due to the resounding agreement and definitiveness demonstrated by the United States Court of Appeals Circuit in their recent ruling.
Further supporting this sentiment, Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein conveyed in a separate note on August 30th, “The judges unanimously rejected the SEC’s arguments, and the agency will encounter challenges in justifying future rejections as it approaches impending deadlines.”
In his personal update on X platform, Seyffart appended that approvals for spot Bitcoin ETFs are anticipated to be effectively finalized by Q4 2024, projecting the probability of approval to have surged to 95% by that time.
Balchunas further noted that considering the recent legal and public relations setback, a rejection by the SEC would be “politically unfeasible.”
In the upcoming week, the SEC is set to make “first deadline” determinations on seven Bitcoin spot ETF applications, submitted by Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree, and Valkyrie.
Balchunas expressed the view that it wouldn’t be astonishing if the SEC decides to postpone the review of these impending Bitcoin spot ETF applications.
However, the prevailing anticipation is that the SEC might catch everyone off guard by yielding and granting simultaneous approval to the Bitcoin spot ETFs, he noted.