The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has dipped to $28,562, but there’s a strong projection that it will surge beyond an impressive $150,000 by the conclusion of 2024. This optimistic forecast comes from investment research firm Fundstrat, which highlights that the approval of the current wave of United States-based spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is a crucial factor.
During an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box on August 16th, Fundstrat’s Managing Partner and Head of Research, Tom Lee, shared his insights. He anticipates that the approval of a cluster of successful Bitcoin spot ETF applications will reshape the supply-demand equilibrium of Bitcoin, leading to substantial price growth.
When queried about his expectations for the Bitcoin price by the end of the upcoming year, Lee didn’t shy away from making a bold prediction:
Lee emphasized that this scenario holds true only if it’s a spot Bitcoin ETF approved within the United States, given that spot Bitcoin ETFs already exist in Europe.
As stated by Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, the United States currently accounts for a significant 97.7% of the worldwide trading volume for ETFs related to cryptocurrencies. He anticipates that this share could rise to 99.5% following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Nevertheless, in the event of spot ETF applications being denied, Tom Lee remains confident in a substantial price surge propelled by Bitcoin’s upcoming halving event. This event is projected to occur in April 2024.
During the month of June, prominent figures in Wall Street such as Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdom Tree, and Valkyrie joined the lead of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, in submitting applications for a Bitcoin spot ETF to the SEC.
Nonetheless, the timelines for a verdict could extend for some of these firms, possibly reaching into 2024, given that the SEC is allotted up to 240 days to render a final decision following the initiation of the review process.
Conversely, the resolution concerning Grayscale’s bid to transform its GBTC trust product into a Bitcoin spot ETF is predicted to arrive in the near future.
Recent assessments by Bloomberg’s ETF analysts, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, indicate a 65% likelihood of these Bitcoin spot ETFs obtaining approval from the securities regulator. This probability has notably surged since BlackRock submitted their application.
There are those who anticipate an earlier arrival of a $100,000 Bitcoin price than initially thought. Blockstream CEO Adam Back, for instance, has made a bet that Bitcoin will achieve this new price milestone the month prior to the halving event.
However, opinions are divided. Jesse Myer, co-founder of Bitcoin investment firm Onramp, expressed on August 15th that the market would require 12-18 months after the halving to fully incorporate the altered reality.
According to him, “Bitcoin won’t experience a surge to $100k before the upcoming halving.”