Market Veteran Benjamin Cowen Predicts Ethereum Breakdown in Q4 2024, Drawing Parallels to 2016 and 2019 Cycles
Benjamin Cowen, a well-known market analyst, has highlighted Ethereum’s cyclical breakdown patterns from 2016 and 2019, suggesting that a similar downturn could occur in Q4 2024.
Cowen recently shared a chart of Ethereum’s ETH/USD monthly candles, which shows strikingly similar behavior to previous cycles. A breakdown in Ethereum’s value against Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) appears to be happening for the third time under conditions comparable to 2016 and 2019.
The big question is whether ETH/USD will see further declines, echoing these past trends.
Historical ETH/BTC Breakdowns
According to Cowen’s analysis, Ethereum’s first major ETH/BTC breakdown occurred in Q4 2016, followed by a significant drop in ETH/USD in the following months. This breakdown coincided with Ethereum falling below a green regression curve that had acted as key support. After this dip in late 2016, Ethereum eventually resumed its upward trajectory in the subsequent months.
Cowen pointed out that in 2019, Ethereum experienced another ETH/BTC breakdown. While October 2019 showed a brief recovery with a green candle, the months of November and December turned red, signaling continued weakness. Once again, Ethereum dipped below the regression curve before rebounding in the months that followed, especially in early 2020.
Possible Breakdown in Q4 2024
Looking forward, Cowen’s analysis suggests that Ethereum may be heading for another slump in Q4 2024, having already undergone an ETH/BTC breakdown. Ethereum is currently hovering near a key logarithmic regression band, and a further drop in ETH/USD could occur, similar to the declines seen in 2016 and 2019. A potential recovery could follow in the months after the dip, as has happened in previous cycles.
So far in 2024, Ethereum has experienced notable volatility. The year started strong, with five consecutive green months from January to May. However, since June, the market has seen consistent red months, and October 2024 appears to be following this trend, much like during previous breakdown periods.
Whale Movements Amplify Bearish Sentiment
Adding to the bearish outlook, recent on-chain data reveals significant Ethereum transfers to exchanges. A whale who participated in Ethereum’s ICO has been selling large amounts of ETH, recently moving 5,000 ETH (valued at $12.22 million) to Kraken. Over the past two weeks, this whale has sold 45,000 ETH at an average price of $2,516, bringing total sales to 60,000 ETH for approximately $149.68 million.
Additionally, the Ethereum Foundation has moved 2,500 ETH ($6.06 million) to Bitstamp in two separate transactions, fueling speculation that more sales could be on the horizon. As these large transfers continue, Ethereum may face increased selling pressure through the end of 2024.