A pattern in the holdings of the Bitcoin long-term holders may suggest that the current bull run is 40% of the way to completion.
Long-term Bitcoin holders have recently been distributing their holdings.
In a recent post on X, Glassnode’s lead analyst Checkmate delved into the recent behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs). These LTHs are investors who have held onto their BTC for over six months.
Typically, the longer investors hold onto their coins, the less likely they are to sell them. LTHs, known for their steadfastness, tend to hold through market fluctuations, making their sales occasions notable.
Historically, during bull runs when Bitcoin surpasses its previous all-time high (ATH), LTHs start distributing their holdings. Having held for extended periods, they accumulate substantial profits, which they begin to spend when demand surges during bull rallies, fetching high prices for their coins.
Checkmate observed that the recent ATH break of Bitcoin has prompted similar behavior from LTHs, who have begun spending.
Recent data shows a decline in the supply held by Bitcoin LTHs. It’s important to note that there’s a delay in this metric’s increase, as newly acquired coins must age for six months before being considered part of the LTH cohort’s holdings. However, when it comes to drawdowns, there’s no such delay, as coins instantly exit the group when sold.
Therefore, the current distribution from LTHs is evident. Checkmate points out that, based on historical patterns of drawdown in LTH supply, the current Bitcoin cycle is approximately 40% complete in this process.